US-Iran conflict has disrupted global crude oil channels, causing severe volatility in the polyester industry chain
Compared to the mild impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-Iran conflict that continued to escalate at the end of February 2026 has dealt a comprehensive and intense blow to the polyester industry. Currently, the US and Iran have failed to reach a navigation agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing clashes have restricted the world’s core crude oil transport routes. Data shows that the Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world’s crude oil transport, but during the conflict, regional navigation volume plummeted to 35% of pre-war levels, resulting in a daily crude oil supply gap of 6 to 7 million barrels, directly triggering a hard global crude oil supply gap.
$92.16
July WTI Crude Oil Futures
+$4.80 (+5.49%) as of June 1, 2026
+$4.80 (+5.49%) as of June 1, 2026
$94.98
August Brent Crude Oil Futures
+$3.86 (+4.24%) as of June 1, 2026
+$3.86 (+4.24%) as of June 1, 2026
6–7M
Daily Crude Oil Supply Gap
barrels per day during conflict period
barrels per day during conflict period
Short-Term Impact: Instantaneous Transmission & Full-Chain Surge
In the short term, this conflict is characterized by instantaneous transmission and a full-chain surge. After the news of the Strait of Hormuz blockade was released, Brent crude oil surged 6.68% in a single day, directly triggering polyester cost pressures. The market quickly spread to all segments of the supply chain:
▲
PX
Hit the daily limit
▲
PTA
Rose over 6%
▲
Ethylene Glycol
Sealed plates
▲
Bottle Chips & Staple Fibers
Surged sharply
On the market side, downstream weaving companies panicked restocking, with frequent periodic rushes to buy goods, but high raw material prices quickly suppressed end-user procurement demand, creating a fragmented pattern of “upstream price hikes and soaring prices, downstream stalling” — sharply increasing operational pressure on small and medium-sized weaving enterprises.
Medium to Long-Term: Structural Damage & High-Cost Era
In the medium to long term, the structural damage caused by conflict will have far-reaching effects. As the core global producer of PX and ethylene glycol, the Middle East’s navigation obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz directly restricted China’s imports of polyester raw materials.
20%+
China’s dependence on ethylene glycol imports exceeds 20%, with raw material inventories remaining at critically low levels industry-wide.
$95–$115
Brent crude oil prices have long held in the $95–$115 per barrel range, marking the polyester industry’s official entry into a high-cost development era.
Some polyester production units have been forced to reduce burdens and reduce output due to raw material shortages. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk premiums continue to solidify. SMEs with weak capital and insufficient bargaining power are being cleared out at an accelerated pace, with industry resources continuously concentrating among leading companies and market concentration rapidly increasing.
Post time: Jun-02-2026
