Cost-driven increase pushes East China PTA spot prices upward

Market Spot Price Update

On September 9th, East China PTA spot prices rose, with the mainstream market discussion price around 6,580 yuan/ton. Looking at the basis performance, the main port delivery offers for this week and next week showed a premium of 450-650 yuan/ton for contract 01, while the rolled-over contract 01 had a premium of 400 yuan/ton; by the end of September, the rolled-over contract fell to a 300 yuan/ton premium, with the nearby month spot premiums even stronger.

Key Price Drivers

The current PTA strength is mainly driven by costs. Due to geopolitical risks, international oil prices have gone up, pushing raw material prices higher, and spot prices rose along with that in early trading. At the same time, spot supply is tight, keeping the basis strong, and the spot market is showing good resilience.

Market Sentiment & Transactions

Although both prices and the basis have strengthened, market trading sentiment hasn’t blindly chased the rally. On the downstream polyester side, there’s a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual deal negotiations are cautious. Under high prices, willingness to buy is limited, so the market shows a pattern of ‘strong prices, weak transactions.’

Short-term Outlook

In the short term, PTA prices will still be closely tied to crude oil trends. Oil price fluctuations caused by geopolitical news will continue to pass through to the polyester supply chain. Tight spot liquidity supports the basis, but if downstream demand remains weak, high prices will gradually suppress buying interest. Going forward, it’s important to keep an eye on changes in crude oil, port supply releases, and the actual purchasing pace of polyester plants, while being wary of the risk of price drops if costs pull back quickly.