Brent crude oil plummeted 5%, while FDY rose against the trend! Will the cost pressure on September polyester filament continue?

According to TexPro monitoring data, prices for multiple mainstream FDY specifications collectively increased. FDY 100D/72F, 75D/36F, and 150D/96F all recorded varying degrees of price increases. The current price hike shows a clear rhythm, with some specifications adjusted on Monday and Tuesday, while the rest were increased from Monday to Wednesday. Prices have remained steady through the weekend after the hike, reflecting solid market support rather than short-term speculative activity.

Crude oil has fallen sharply, while downstream FDY has strengthened, a divergence in the industry chain that warrants close attention from the sector. Under normal logic, as crude oil is the source of the polyester industry chain, a decline in oil prices should lead to a reduction in the cost of polyester filament. However, there is a significant lag in price transmission. On one hand, the raw material costs incurred during the previous phase of rising crude oil prices have already been embedded in the existing raw material inventories of enterprises and will not immediately reset production costs with a short-term drop in oil prices. On the other hand, polyester plants actively control production to maintain prices, adjusting operations to support product prices, thereby mitigating the adverse impact of falling oil prices.

From the perspective of market expectations, by the end of August, the textile industry is approaching the traditional “Golden September” peak season. Downstream weaving enterprises are warming up their expectations for stocking autumn and winter fabrics, releasing some procurement demand in advance, which provides emotional support for FDY demand. However, this should be viewed objectively. Currently, end orders have not exploded on a large scale, and weaving operations are in a slow recovery stage. Most weaving factories are still focused on necessary purchases and consuming their own inventory, with large-scale proactive restocking yet to fully arrive. In other words, this round of FDY price increase is driven more by supply-side price support combined with peak season expectations, rather than being fully driven by a surge in end orders.

From the procurement perspective, the market in September will enter a situation of tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. The risk lies in the possibility that if crude oil continues to weaken, the subsequent cost pressure may gradually be transmitted downward, making a price correction of filament yarn possible. On the other hand, positive factors also exist: polyester factories controlling production, traditional peak season stocking, and short-term tight balance in raw material segments will all provide a floor for FDY prices, so the conditions for a direct sharp drop are not sufficient.

For the textile procurement team, September is not the right time to blindly chase high prices, nor should one be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to focus on tracking three major signals: the fluctuation range of Brent crude oil, changes in spot prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, and the operating rates and actual production and sales data of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Combined with their own order schedules, teams should adopt a strategy of phased, need-based procurement to avoid operational risks caused by severe market fluctuations.

Overall, it is judged that in September, polyester filament is unlikely to experience a unilateral trend and will most likely maintain a high-level oscillating pattern. Cost impacts will occur periodically, but there is insufficient momentum for continuous significant upward movement. The supply-demand dynamics will be the key variable determining its future trajectory.